The future is the state of things yet to come. One can only expect what may happen and never know what will happen. The future can only be predicted based on past experience. The predictions differ based on the forecaster and his experience, in-depth understanding and knowledge. The technological future is the technology of the future, the destiny of the technology of today.

The future can only be predicted based on past experience. The predictions differ based on the forecaster and his experience, in-depth understanding and knowledge

The predictions of tomorrow’s technology are as diverse and conflicting as any ranging from the on-demand business model promulgated by IBM to the user empowerment as envisioned by Microsoft. While the top players in the field continue composing and refining their visions and trying to make them reality, the debate rages on.

IBM’s vision

IBM predicts that users of technology in industries ranging from the small scale to mass production based factories, like television manufacturers, will lose interest in implementing services on their own, what Microsoft terms in-house. The basic idea is the user has to pay full price even for the software he does not need or rarely uses. So the better option for the user is to pay for what he uses, as long as he uses. IBM believes they will buy computing services and support from technology vendors. Users can then use only what they need and pay for only what they use—on demand. The idea they explain with great detail here. IBM is already offering the on-demand kit for download.

On Demand Enterprise

“A year ago, it was an assertion. We’ve moved well beyond assertion into adoption and reality” said IBM CEO Palmisano, of the on-demand effort during a keynote address at the IBM Business Leadership Forum in San Francisco. IBM itself expects to cut $7 billion in expenses from 2003 to 2004 by employing the idea, Palmisano said.

Big Blue expected one outsourcing area of its on-demand work, in which IBM takes over components of a company’s business, to be a $150 billion market back in 2004 and to grow 12 percent to 14 percent each year for the next five years. UPS, Procter & Gamble, Hewitt Associates, FedEx and Lincoln Financial Group are among the IBM customers for this “business transformation outsourcing” area.

Microsoft’s vision

In contrast to IBM, Microsoft sees the individual user as the design point. Microsoft believes that further empowerment of the user as an individual is the key to the next generation of computing. The company equates the on-demand model with the time-sharing model and contends that outsourcing computing services minimizes the individual persons control over the computing resources. Instead the future will be driven by individual users on personal computers using standards based tools with Microsoft’s enhancements for everything from simple tasks to intricate applications.

The concept is ideally disposed for Microsoft’s “per box” sales strategy and works perfectly for its marketing strategy to maintain domination in the PC world

Interrelationship

The concept is ideally disposed for Microsoft’s “per box” sales strategy and works perfectly for its marketing strategy to maintain domination in the PC world. The open standards in the software industry provide the essential base for the development of Microsoft products but it is the proprietary closed source code that shapes the main structure. The development of powerful tools, embracing open standards and enriching and enhancing them with proprietary closed extensions, provides the core of Microsoft’s vision of the future of computing.

What others are thinking

The majority of the companies are thinking in line with IBM. Even Sun, which once shunned services in favor of selling big, expensive boxes, is the latest to jump on the pay-per-use utility computing bandwagon with a new grid offering that promises to bring computing power to users on demand.

Sun Grid